Historical Shadow Spread Validation
2024–2025 · SP+ + Sagarin Shadow · Sunday 9 AM ET market| Edge | Games | Record | ATS | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|
Threshold labels are descriptive research statuses, not automatic betting rules.
Betting
Performance, closing-line value, current expected value, and one complete wager ledger.
Open—
Exposure—
P/L—
ROI—
Current EV—
AVG CLV · PINNACLE—
| Source | Date | Selection | Book | Bet | Stake | Close | CLV | Result | Details | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading betting activity… | ||||||||||
Official wagers come from the Google Sheet. Site-entered drafts remain device-local and are excluded from official performance.
Performance over time
Realized P/L and open-bet EVRealized P/LCurrent EV
Betting summary
Overall, Powers, and Model / OpenHistorical Spread Edge Validation
2021–2025 · five-source equal weight · Sunday 9 PM ET market| Edge | Games | Record | ATS | ROI | Beat Closing Line ? | Won Line Move ? | Avg CLV ? | CLV-Implied EV ? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ | 3,147 | 1574-1535-38 | 50.6% | -3.5% | 52.4% | 64.7% | +0.52 | -1.65% |
| 1+ | 2,586 | 1301-1253-32 | 50.9% | -2.9% | 53.3% | 65.6% | +0.58 | -1.32% |
| 1.5+ | 2,025 | 1016-980-29 | 50.9% | -3.0% | 54.7% | 66.5% | +0.64 | -1.07% |
| 2+ | 1,545 | 791-734-20 | 51.9% | -1.2% | 54.1% | 65.8% | +0.65 | -1.05% |
| 2.5+ | 1,156 | 597-547-12 | 52.2% | -0.6% | 54.9% | 65.9% | +0.70 | -0.91% |
| 3+ BET ROI+ | 821 | 430-382-9 | 53.0% | +0.8% | 54.8% | 66.0% | +0.79 | -0.60% |
| 3.5+ BET ROI+ | 588 | 308-273-7 | 53.0% | +1.0% | 56.6% | 66.7% | +0.91 | -0.02% |
| 4+ BET ROI+ BET EV+ | 408 | 221-184-3 | 54.6% | +3.9% | 55.6% | 66.4% | +1.01 | +0.15% |
| 4.5+ BET EV+ | 273 | 139-133-1 | 51.1% | -2.6% | 59.3% | 69.2% | +1.31 | +1.30% |
| 5+ BET EV+ | 189 | 98-90-1 | 52.1% | -0.7% | 60.8% | 68.5% | +1.58 | +2.08% |
| 6+ BET ROI+ BET EV+ | 85 | 49-36-0 | 57.6% | +10.0% | 61.2% | 68.4% | +2.55 | +4.63% |
BET ROI+ identifies cumulative thresholds with positive realized historical ROI.
BET EV+ identifies cumulative thresholds with positive CLV-Implied EV.
Thresholds are cumulative and are not automatic betting rules.
Beat Closing Line includes same-line closes in the denominator; Won Line Move excludes them.
ATS and ROI show realized results, while Avg CLV and CLV-Implied EV evaluate market value.
Historical Totals Edge Validation
2021–2025 · 40% SP+ / 40% Massey Dual / 20% Sagarin · Sunday 9 PM ET market| Edge | Games | Record | O/U Win % | ROI | Beat Closing Line ? | Won Line Move ? | Avg CLV ? | CLV-Implied EV ? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5+ BET ROI+ | 2,311 | 1222-1076-13 | 53.2% | +1.5% | 49.0% | 57.5% | +0.31 | -2.87% |
| 1+ BET ROI+ | 2,037 | 1088-937-12 | 53.7% | +2.5% | 48.9% | 57.1% | +0.30 | -2.94% |
| 1.5+ BET ROI+ | 1,734 | 932-790-12 | 54.1% | +3.3% | 49.0% | 57.4% | +0.32 | -2.83% |
| 2+ LEAN BET ROI+ | 1,462 | 783-672-7 | 53.8% | +2.7% | 48.4% | 57.1% | +0.31 | -2.87% |
| 2.5+ LEAN BET ROI+ | 1,232 | 685-541-6 | 55.9% | +6.6% | 48.5% | 56.7% | +0.33 | -2.77% |
| 3+ BET SIGNAL BET ROI+ | 1,017 | 565-446-6 | 55.9% | +6.6% | 49.1% | 57.6% | +0.39 | -2.45% |
| 3.5+ BET SIGNAL BET ROI+ | 816 | 456-355-5 | 56.2% | +7.2% | 48.5% | 57.1% | +0.36 | -2.64% |
| 4+ ACTIONABLE BET ROI+ | 641 | 359-280-2 | 56.2% | +7.2% | 49.3% | 57.7% | +0.41 | -2.38% |
| 4.5+ ACTIONABLE BET ROI+ | 512 | 290-220-2 | 56.9% | +8.5% | 50.0% | 59.0% | +0.46 | -2.09% |
| 5+ STRONG BET ROI+ | 404 | 224-180-0 | 55.4% | +5.8% | 51.0% | 60.2% | +0.55 | -1.59% |
| 6+ STRONG BET ROI+ | 255 | 139-116-0 | 54.5% | +4.0% | 52.2% | 61.6% | +0.70 | -0.79% |
| 7+ STRONG BET ROI+ | 151 | 85-66-0 | 56.3% | +7.4% | 57.6% | 64.9% | +0.82 | -0.16% |
| 8+ STRONG BET ROI+ | 97 | 55-42-0 | 56.7% | +8.1% | 54.6% | 63.1% | +0.72 | -0.72% |
| 10+ STRONG BET ROI+ | 34 | 19-15-0 | 55.9% | +6.7% | 58.8% | 66.7% | +0.56 | -1.56% |
Historical primary = 50% SP+ + 50% Massey Dual. The legacy 40% SP+ + 40% Massey Dual + 20% Sagarin study remains selectable for comparison.
Massey Dual = equal weight of Massey's published Total and predicted-score sum.
LEAN begins at 2+, BET SIGNAL at 3+, ACTIONABLE at 4+, and STRONG at 5+.
BET ROI+ identifies positive realized historical ROI.
BET EV+ uses the temporary totals CLV-implied EV estimate and is intentionally separate from realized ROI.
Thresholds are cumulative and are not automatic betting rules.
Historical Model Performance
2021–2025 · Sunday 9 PM ET| Model | Games | Record | ATS | ROI | Beat Closing Line ? | Avg CLV ? | MAE ? | Bias ? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 3,462 | 1,740-1,684-38 | 50.8% | -3.1% | 51.5% | +0.49 | 12.30 | +0.02 |
| SP+ | 3,458 | 1,740-1,675-43 | 51.0% | -2.8% | 50.7% | +0.42 | 12.58 | -0.02 |
| FPI | 3,506 | 1,789-1,683-34 | 51.5% | -1.7% | 51.8% | +0.51 | 12.48 | +0.21 |
| TeamRankings | 3,498 | 1,739-1,719-40 | 50.3% | -4.1% | 51.6% | +0.47 | 12.47 | -0.01 |
| Sagarin | 3,509 | 1,765-1,704-40 | 50.9% | -3.0% | 48.0% | +0.37 | 12.49 | +0.25 |
| DRatings | 3,489 | 1,794-1,657-38 | 52.0% | -0.9% | 48.9% | +0.38 | 12.58 | -0.33 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 641 | 310-327-4 | 48.7% | -7.4% | 54.3% | +0.62 | 13.05 | +0.48 |
| SP+ | 640 | 299-331-10 | 47.5% | -9.5% | 56.7% | +0.66 | 13.32 | +0.30 |
| FPI | 640 | 319-316-5 | 50.2% | -4.3% | 50.9% | +0.54 | 13.10 | +1.10 |
| TeamRankings | 638 | 320-312-6 | 50.6% | -3.6% | 54.5% | +0.54 | 13.12 | +0.61 |
| Sagarin | 641 | 293-344-4 | 46.0% | -12.4% | 48.7% | +0.44 | 13.26 | +0.18 |
| DRatings | 635 | 299-330-6 | 47.5% | -9.5% | 48.2% | +0.39 | 13.39 | +0.22 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 715 | 352-350-13 | 50.1% | -4.2% | 51.2% | +0.43 | 12.18 | +0.48 |
| SP+ | 717 | 358-349-10 | 50.6% | -3.4% | 53.0% | +0.46 | 12.51 | +0.74 |
| FPI | 715 | 367-337-11 | 52.1% | -0.4% | 51.0% | +0.49 | 12.32 | +1.11 |
| TeamRankings | 715 | 343-360-12 | 48.8% | -6.8% | 52.4% | +0.47 | 12.45 | +0.21 |
| Sagarin | 721 | 362-346-13 | 51.1% | -2.4% | 47.6% | +0.36 | 12.52 | -0.10 |
| DRatings | 716 | 388-318-10 | 55.0% | +4.8% | 49.0% | +0.32 | 12.52 | +0.56 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 712 | 343-360-9 | 48.8% | -6.9% | 53.2% | +0.47 | 12.10 | +0.08 |
| SP+ | 711 | 366-334-11 | 52.3% | -0.3% | 50.6% | +0.38 | 12.35 | +0.15 |
| FPI | 712 | 360-345-7 | 51.1% | -2.6% | 55.9% | +0.52 | 12.32 | +0.22 |
| TeamRankings | 710 | 350-351-9 | 49.9% | -4.8% | 53.0% | +0.47 | 12.23 | -0.19 |
| Sagarin | 711 | 362-339-10 | 51.6% | -1.5% | 50.8% | +0.43 | 12.22 | -0.09 |
| DRatings | 712 | 379-324-9 | 53.9% | +2.8% | 50.3% | +0.35 | 12.22 | +0.28 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 713 | 382-325-6 | 54.0% | +3.0% | 46.7% | +0.31 | 12.37 | -0.36 |
| SP+ | 711 | 368-337-6 | 52.2% | -0.4% | 45.9% | +0.22 | 12.61 | -0.19 |
| FPI | 713 | 381-327-5 | 53.8% | +2.6% | 50.6% | +0.41 | 12.47 | -0.28 |
| TeamRankings | 712 | 368-338-6 | 52.1% | -0.6% | 47.2% | +0.26 | 12.54 | -0.36 |
| Sagarin | 712 | 371-333-8 | 52.7% | +0.6% | 46.2% | +0.19 | 12.42 | +0.09 |
| DRatings | 709 | 352-350-7 | 50.1% | -4.4% | 48.7% | +0.34 | 12.71 | -0.98 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 681 | 353-322-6 | 52.3% | -0.3% | 52.6% | +0.62 | 11.87 | -0.58 |
| SP+ | 679 | 349-324-6 | 51.9% | -1.0% | 47.9% | +0.42 | 12.15 | -1.14 |
| FPI | 726 | 362-358-6 | 50.3% | -4.0% | 50.3% | +0.60 | 12.26 | -0.98 |
| TeamRankings | 723 | 358-358-7 | 50.0% | -4.6% | 51.0% | +0.60 | 12.09 | -0.25 |
| Sagarin | 724 | 377-342-5 | 52.4% | +0.0% | 46.8% | +0.42 | 12.12 | +1.15 |
| DRatings | 717 | 376-335-6 | 52.9% | +0.9% | 48.4% | +0.49 | 12.14 | -1.65 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 821 | 430-382-9 | 53.0% | +0.8% | 54.8% | +0.79 | 12.34 | +0.22 |
| SP+ | 1,746 | 891-825-30 | 51.9% | -1.0% | 52.7% | +0.52 | 12.90 | -0.03 |
| FPI | 1,471 | 749-706-16 | 51.5% | -1.9% | 54.9% | +0.69 | 12.78 | +0.31 |
| TeamRankings | 1,432 | 704-705-23 | 50.0% | -4.8% | 54.7% | +0.70 | 12.74 | -0.16 |
| Sagarin | 1,399 | 691-695-13 | 49.9% | -5.0% | 49.2% | +0.45 | 13.01 | +0.31 |
| DRatings | 1,411 | 718-679-14 | 51.4% | -2.0% | 49.0% | +0.48 | 13.30 | -0.83 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 170 | 76-93-1 | 45.0% | -14.5% | 57.6% | +1.12 | 13.37 | +0.55 |
| SP+ | 327 | 162-158-7 | 50.6% | -3.7% | 63.6% | +1.02 | 13.46 | -0.07 |
| FPI | 283 | 135-147-1 | 47.9% | -8.9% | 53.0% | +0.70 | 13.17 | +1.52 |
| TeamRankings | 291 | 138-149-4 | 48.1% | -8.6% | 56.0% | +0.78 | 13.68 | +0.36 |
| Sagarin | 294 | 139-154-1 | 47.4% | -9.9% | 50.7% | +0.64 | 13.81 | +0.11 |
| DRatings | 265 | 116-147-2 | 44.1% | -16.0% | 46.8% | +0.50 | 14.44 | +0.04 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 172 | 84-85-3 | 49.7% | -5.2% | 53.5% | +0.77 | 13.53 | +1.30 |
| SP+ | 332 | 161-165-6 | 49.4% | -5.7% | 52.7% | +0.54 | 13.31 | +1.11 |
| FPI | 295 | 145-145-5 | 50.0% | -4.5% | 53.9% | +0.69 | 12.79 | +1.51 |
| TeamRankings | 258 | 117-135-6 | 46.4% | -11.2% | 55.4% | +0.82 | 12.87 | +0.78 |
| Sagarin | 285 | 136-144-5 | 48.6% | -7.2% | 44.9% | +0.27 | 13.29 | -1.58 |
| DRatings | 321 | 166-149-6 | 52.7% | +0.5% | 49.5% | +0.43 | 13.43 | +1.24 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 184 | 108-74-2 | 59.3% | +13.0% | 57.6% | +0.79 | 11.57 | -0.84 |
| SP+ | 355 | 189-158-8 | 54.5% | +3.8% | 54.6% | +0.55 | 12.60 | +0.75 |
| FPI | 304 | 157-142-5 | 52.5% | +0.1% | 61.5% | +0.84 | 12.55 | -0.02 |
| TeamRankings | 296 | 147-144-5 | 50.5% | -3.6% | 56.8% | +0.64 | 12.40 | -0.31 |
| Sagarin | 263 | 129-131-3 | 49.6% | -5.3% | 51.0% | +0.47 | 12.62 | +0.33 |
| DRatings | 319 | 170-145-4 | 54.0% | +3.0% | 51.7% | +0.48 | 12.62 | -1.02 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 154 | 80-73-1 | 52.3% | -0.4% | 49.4% | +0.37 | 11.59 | -0.33 |
| SP+ | 383 | 194-184-5 | 51.3% | -2.1% | 46.0% | +0.18 | 12.85 | -0.25 |
| FPI | 282 | 155-124-3 | 55.6% | +5.7% | 51.1% | +0.44 | 12.22 | +0.22 |
| TeamRankings | 304 | 156-145-3 | 51.8% | -1.3% | 49.7% | +0.38 | 12.67 | -1.06 |
| Sagarin | 232 | 118-113-1 | 51.1% | -2.5% | 47.4% | +0.22 | 12.39 | +0.10 |
| DRatings | 247 | 122-123-2 | 49.8% | -5.0% | 47.8% | +0.42 | 13.56 | -1.92 |
| Five-source equal weight Composite | 141 | 82-57-2 | 59.0% | +12.3% | 55.3% | +0.88 | 11.46 | +0.48 |
| SP+ | 349 | 185-160-4 | 53.6% | +2.3% | 48.1% | +0.38 | 12.37 | -1.65 |
| FPI | 307 | 157-148-2 | 51.5% | -1.9% | 54.4% | +0.77 | 13.14 | -1.56 |
| TeamRankings | 283 | 146-132-5 | 52.5% | +0.0% | 56.2% | +0.94 | 12.08 | -0.39 |
| Sagarin | 325 | 169-153-3 | 52.5% | -0.0% | 51.4% | +0.59 | 12.81 | +2.25 |
| DRatings | 259 | 144-115-0 | 55.6% | +6.0% | 48.6% | +0.56 | 12.59 | -2.99 |
All Games includes every directional model selection with an executable Sunday 9 PM ET market observation.
3.0+ Edge includes only games where that model differed from the market by at least 3 points.
Five-source equal weight = SP+ + FPI + TeamRankings + Sagarin + DRatings.
Historical Totals Model Performance
2021–2025 · Sunday 9 PM ET| Model | Games | Record | O/U Win % | ROI | Beat Closing Line | Avg CLV | MAE ? | Bias ? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 2,475 | 1,311-1,150-14 | 53.3% | +1.7% | 48.5% | +0.29 | 12.60 | +0.21 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 3,461 | 1,798-1,650-13 | 52.1% | -0.5% | 48.7% | +0.30 | 12.81 | +0.40 |
| SP+ | 3,518 | 1,813-1,694-11 | 51.7% | -1.4% | 50.4% | +0.36 | 12.94 | +0.25 |
| Massey Total | 3,461 | 1,793-1,651-17 | 52.1% | -0.7% | 45.4% | +0.13 | 12.89 | +1.36 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 3,461 | 1,810-1,636-15 | 52.5% | +0.2% | 48.8% | +0.31 | 12.88 | -0.01 |
| Massey Dual | 3,461 | 1,810-1,634-17 | 52.6% | +0.3% | 47.2% | +0.23 | 12.85 | +0.67 |
| Sagarin | 2,503 | 1,295-1,195-13 | 52.0% | -0.7% | 49.3% | +0.35 | 13.77 | -0.46 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 159 | 82-76-1 | 51.9% | -0.8% | 52.8% | +0.59 | 12.60 | +0.36 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 233 | 105-126-2 | 45.5% | -13.3% | 43.8% | -0.10 | 12.19 | +0.10 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 623 | 325-295-3 | 52.4% | -0.2% | 49.8% | +0.25 | 12.71 | +0.06 |
| SP+ | 633 | 335-297-1 | 53.0% | +0.9% | 53.9% | +0.40 | 12.89 | +0.21 |
| Massey Total | 623 | 315-305-3 | 50.8% | -3.2% | 46.1% | +0.04 | 12.76 | +0.86 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 623 | 314-305-4 | 50.7% | -3.4% | 47.0% | +0.09 | 12.95 | -0.59 |
| Massey Dual | 623 | 311-309-3 | 50.2% | -4.4% | 47.4% | +0.07 | 12.82 | +0.13 |
| Sagarin | 234 | 108-124-2 | 46.6% | -11.1% | 41.5% | -0.09 | 13.80 | -1.14 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 12 | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | +11.3% | 58.3% | +1.04 | 11.58 | +0.48 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 612 | 319-289-4 | 52.5% | +0.3% | 48.5% | +0.31 | 12.87 | +0.58 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 700 | 368-329-3 | 52.8% | +0.9% | 49.9% | +0.38 | 12.73 | +0.66 |
| SP+ | 712 | 367-342-3 | 51.8% | -1.1% | 50.6% | +0.38 | 12.73 | +0.39 |
| Massey Total | 700 | 364-331-5 | 52.4% | +0.1% | 47.7% | +0.27 | 12.89 | +1.70 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 700 | 349-346-5 | 50.2% | -4.0% | 51.3% | +0.41 | 12.98 | +0.21 |
| Massey Dual | 700 | 361-334-5 | 51.9% | -0.7% | 46.9% | +0.24 | 12.90 | +0.96 |
| Sagarin | 624 | 333-287-4 | 53.7% | +2.6% | 49.7% | +0.30 | 13.85 | +0.07 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 92 | 49-42-1 | 53.8% | +2.8% | 55.4% | +0.60 | 12.38 | -0.19 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 590 | 318-267-5 | 54.4% | +3.7% | 47.8% | +0.14 | 12.87 | -0.36 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 717 | 359-354-4 | 50.4% | -3.9% | 48.5% | +0.12 | 13.10 | -0.17 |
| SP+ | 729 | 373-352-4 | 51.4% | -1.8% | 51.2% | +0.25 | 13.31 | -0.83 |
| Massey Total | 717 | 371-341-5 | 52.1% | -0.5% | 42.7% | -0.13 | 13.16 | +1.33 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 717 | 377-336-4 | 52.9% | +0.9% | 47.7% | +0.18 | 13.02 | -0.12 |
| Massey Dual | 717 | 372-340-5 | 52.2% | -0.3% | 45.6% | +0.02 | 13.06 | +0.60 |
| Sagarin | 594 | 297-291-6 | 50.5% | -3.6% | 49.5% | +0.26 | 13.87 | -0.65 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | +90.9% | 50.0% | +1.00 | 7.00 | +7.00 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 510 | 291-216-3 | 57.4% | +9.5% | 51.0% | +0.39 | 12.53 | -0.03 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 709 | 381-325-3 | 54.0% | +3.0% | 49.5% | +0.35 | 12.86 | +0.09 |
| SP+ | 716 | 369-344-3 | 51.8% | -1.2% | 50.0% | +0.36 | 13.07 | +0.19 |
| Massey Total | 709 | 386-319-4 | 54.8% | +4.5% | 47.2% | +0.25 | 12.81 | +0.70 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 709 | 395-312-2 | 55.9% | +6.6% | 49.4% | +0.36 | 12.79 | -0.62 |
| Massey Dual | 709 | 386-319-4 | 54.8% | +4.5% | 48.4% | +0.34 | 12.78 | +0.04 |
| Sagarin | 514 | 273-240-1 | 53.2% | +1.5% | 51.4% | +0.45 | 14.22 | -0.38 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 39 | 17-22-0 | 43.6% | -16.7% | 48.7% | +0.44 | 12.61 | -2.50 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 530 | 278-252-0 | 52.5% | +0.1% | 48.9% | +0.53 | 12.23 | +0.68 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 712 | 365-347-0 | 51.3% | -2.2% | 45.8% | +0.39 | 12.65 | +1.33 |
| SP+ | 728 | 369-359-0 | 50.7% | -3.3% | 46.8% | +0.43 | 12.71 | +1.31 |
| Massey Total | 712 | 357-355-0 | 50.1% | -4.4% | 43.4% | +0.23 | 12.79 | +2.15 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 712 | 375-337-0 | 52.7% | +0.5% | 48.6% | +0.46 | 12.66 | +0.99 |
| Massey Dual | 712 | 380-332-0 | 53.4% | +1.8% | 48.0% | +0.46 | 12.70 | +1.57 |
| Sagarin | 537 | 284-253-0 | 52.9% | +1.0% | 50.3% | +0.62 | 13.13 | -0.64 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | -4.0% | 42.9% | +0.50 | 15.67 | +10.89 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 1,017 | 565-446-6 | 55.9% | +6.6% | 49.1% | +0.39 | 12.82 | +0.39 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 1,560 | 835-720-5 | 53.7% | +2.4% | 49.3% | +0.34 | 13.04 | +0.63 |
| SP+ | 1,818 | 963-848-7 | 53.2% | +1.4% | 51.5% | +0.42 | 12.93 | +0.30 |
| Massey Total | 1,927 | 1,021-898-8 | 53.2% | +1.5% | 45.1% | +0.15 | 12.95 | +2.11 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 1,830 | 981-841-8 | 53.8% | +2.7% | 49.8% | +0.35 | 12.99 | -0.16 |
| Massey Dual | 1,679 | 906-766-7 | 54.2% | +3.4% | 47.3% | +0.26 | 13.00 | +1.04 |
| Sagarin | 1,718 | 883-823-12 | 51.8% | -1.2% | 51.0% | +0.44 | 14.37 | -0.58 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 84 | 41-43-0 | 48.8% | -6.8% | 50.0% | +0.64 | 13.62 | +0.35 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 90 | 44-44-2 | 50.0% | -4.7% | 45.6% | -0.17 | 13.23 | -2.49 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 283 | 147-136-0 | 51.9% | -1.2% | 52.3% | +0.21 | 13.29 | -1.19 |
| SP+ | 350 | 187-163-0 | 53.4% | +1.6% | 55.1% | +0.40 | 13.61 | -0.38 |
| Massey Total | 339 | 183-154-2 | 54.3% | +3.4% | 48.1% | +0.08 | 12.86 | +1.24 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 345 | 182-161-2 | 53.1% | +1.0% | 48.1% | +0.14 | 13.03 | -2.09 |
| Massey Dual | 310 | 168-140-2 | 54.5% | +3.8% | 47.7% | +0.15 | 12.93 | -0.77 |
| Sagarin | 152 | 67-83-2 | 44.7% | -14.6% | 42.1% | -0.16 | 14.65 | -2.56 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -35.2% | 33.3% | -0.50 | 17.17 | +6.37 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 285 | 151-131-3 | 53.5% | +2.3% | 47.7% | +0.42 | 13.58 | -0.11 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 337 | 174-160-3 | 52.1% | -0.4% | 49.9% | +0.52 | 13.17 | +1.86 |
| SP+ | 402 | 216-183-3 | 54.1% | +3.5% | 51.5% | +0.52 | 12.67 | +0.86 |
| Massey Total | 408 | 209-197-2 | 51.5% | -1.7% | 45.1% | +0.33 | 12.99 | +2.59 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 380 | 194-184-2 | 51.3% | -2.0% | 49.7% | +0.44 | 13.05 | +0.38 |
| Massey Dual | 356 | 184-170-2 | 52.0% | -0.7% | 48.6% | +0.41 | 12.86 | +2.45 |
| Sagarin | 439 | 232-203-4 | 53.3% | +1.9% | 51.0% | +0.39 | 14.38 | +0.49 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 54 | 27-27-0 | 50.0% | -4.5% | 53.7% | +0.72 | 13.50 | -0.50 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 218 | 124-93-1 | 57.1% | +9.1% | 48.6% | +0.09 | 13.11 | +1.33 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 320 | 172-147-1 | 53.9% | +2.9% | 47.2% | +0.02 | 13.50 | -0.23 |
| SP+ | 400 | 207-190-3 | 52.1% | -0.5% | 51.5% | +0.25 | 13.53 | -1.30 |
| Massey Total | 400 | 204-194-2 | 51.3% | -2.1% | 40.5% | -0.32 | 12.99 | +2.65 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 387 | 199-185-3 | 51.8% | -1.1% | 47.8% | +0.07 | 13.28 | +0.49 |
| Massey Dual | 338 | 177-159-2 | 52.7% | +0.6% | 41.7% | -0.20 | 13.05 | +1.56 |
| Sagarin | 417 | 210-202-5 | 51.0% | -2.7% | 50.1% | +0.30 | 14.43 | -0.69 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | +90.9% | 0.0% | +0.00 | 5.80 | +5.80 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 219 | 132-87-0 | 60.3% | +15.0% | 47.5% | +0.36 | 12.20 | +1.28 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 322 | 180-141-1 | 56.1% | +7.0% | 47.2% | +0.34 | 12.37 | +1.40 |
| SP+ | 361 | 190-170-1 | 52.8% | +0.7% | 49.0% | +0.39 | 12.33 | +1.71 |
| Massey Total | 389 | 219-168-2 | 56.6% | +8.0% | 46.3% | +0.26 | 13.04 | +1.68 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 366 | 212-153-1 | 58.1% | +10.8% | 51.6% | +0.49 | 12.64 | -0.61 |
| Massey Dual | 334 | 195-138-1 | 58.6% | +11.7% | 47.9% | +0.34 | 12.91 | +0.40 |
| Sagarin | 353 | 184-168-1 | 52.3% | -0.3% | 53.8% | +0.60 | 14.69 | -0.18 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 21 | 9-12-0 | 42.9% | -18.2% | 52.4% | +0.67 | 13.32 | -0.94 |
| 40/40/20 + Sagarin PRIMARY | 205 | 114-91-0 | 55.6% | +6.0% | 54.6% | +0.96 | 11.95 | +0.39 |
| SP+/Massey 50/50 CORE | 298 | 162-136-0 | 54.4% | +3.6% | 50.3% | +0.61 | 12.90 | +1.07 |
| SP+ | 305 | 163-142-0 | 53.4% | +1.9% | 50.2% | +0.59 | 12.40 | +0.79 |
| Massey Total | 391 | 206-185-0 | 52.7% | +0.4% | 46.0% | +0.41 | 12.83 | +2.25 |
| Massey Pred Sum | 352 | 194-158-0 | 55.1% | +5.1% | 52.0% | +0.63 | 12.92 | +0.88 |
| Massey Dual | 341 | 182-159-0 | 53.4% | +1.8% | 50.4% | +0.56 | 13.24 | +1.35 |
| Sagarin | 357 | 190-167-0 | 53.2% | +1.7% | 53.2% | +0.76 | 13.85 | -1.33 |
| DRatings LIMITED HISTORY | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | +14.4% | 20.0% | +0.40 | 15.62 | +10.26 |
PRIMARY = 40% SP+ + 40% Massey Dual + 20% Sagarin.
CORE = 50% SP+ + 50% Massey Dual.
All Games includes every directional model selection with an executable Sunday 9 PM ET totals market observation.
3.0+ Edge includes only games where that model differed from the market by at least 3 points.
DRatings is retained for reference but has materially smaller provenance-safe historical coverage.
Historical Edge Through Time
Independent checkpoint performance and matched-origin signal decay are separate modes.Loading canonical historical analytics…
Prospective prediction tracking is active. Model accuracy uses frozen pre-kickoff predictions and verified finals; betting and CLV samples additionally require their market evidence.
Active Standard SpreadSP+, FPI, TeamRankings, and DRatings at 25% each; all four required
Active Standard Total40% SP+ Total, 40% Massey Dual, 20% DRatings Total; all required
Total challenger50% SP+ Total and 50% Massey Dual; both required
Models
Ledger
Spread model matrix
Rankings begin after 30 settled selections| Model | Games | Record | Win % | MAE | RMSE | Bias | ROI | Avg CLV | Beat Close |
|---|
Model opportunity ledger
Read-only; never creates a personal wager| Week / Game | Market | Model | Prediction | Opener | Edge | Side | Qualification | Provenance | Close | Point CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No accepted prospective opportunities yet. | |||||||||||
Predicted rating updates vs early market
Historical Shadow Totals Validation
2024–2025 · SP+ offense/defense Shadow · Sunday 9 AM ET market| Edge | Games | Record | O/U Win % | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|
Shadow totals improve fair-value accuracy, but historical betting results are non-monotonic and no automatic totals betting rule is frozen.
Stale vs Shadow Model Quality
Why Shadow matters independently of betting thresholdsSpread
| Metric | Stale | Shadow |
|---|
Totals
| Metric | Stale | Shadow |
|---|
What is Shadow?
Shadow estimates how rating systems are likely to update after completed Saturday games, before those new ratings are officially released. As providers update, actual ratings replace predicted Shadow values to create a Hybrid fair value.